In old times, Nature was God, like the Gods of the Greeks based on the sun and sea. Now, nature only speaks Gods words. In our daily lives, if something unexpected and positive happens, its a mircle and no doubt the hand of god was behind it. When something doesnt play out like we wanted, we reassure ourselves that god never wanted it to be.
After reading this article I realized that God (or Nature) is trying to tell us something about how we value human life. We have built our judicial, economic, political and health care systems on one premise that no one questions. Human life is sacred. Again and again, our systems collapse, or are collapsing, because of this one premise. For example, global warming is a result of our belief that human life is sacred. Indeed, even quality of life is sacred. Planet be damned. We are reaching 6 billion because each of the 6 billion is sacred. Another example is health care. As the article explains, health care systems must put a price on human life or they are doomed to breakdown.
The answer seems clear. Human life is not sacred, ie, priceless. God reminds us that it is not so by destroying the systems we have built on this premise alone.
The problem, as I see it, is one of self reference. We can be objective economists, putting a dollar figure on someones life when it comes to life and death questions of some imagined person. But must shed this objectivity when the person who's life is on the line is us or someone close to us.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Monday, June 8, 2009
WWDC Apple 2009
Here are my predictions for what will be announced at the Apple WWDC 2009 today:
iphone:
1) digital compass
2) movie making/editing capability
3) faster processor
4) better battery life
5) Other stuff that has already been announced like cut and paste, in app payments, etc
iphone:
1) digital compass
2) movie making/editing capability
3) faster processor
4) better battery life
5) Other stuff that has already been announced like cut and paste, in app payments, etc
Sunday, April 26, 2009
An idea that could save Pakistan
Very few (rich people) in Pakistan pay taxes. Those that do, tend to not pay what they owe. Result, The government has no money. What it does collect is misspent.
What would happen if we put all taxation data and spending online. If I wanted to find out exactly how much money nawaz sharif or my next door nieghbour declared and paid in taxes, I should be able to look it up easily. Similarly, all the money given to the education ministry and had how it was spent should be put online.
We can use web 2.0 to become the fact checkers and the eye in the sky in Pakistan. Okay, maybe it won't save Pakistan but it would be a step in the right direction.
What would happen if we put all taxation data and spending online. If I wanted to find out exactly how much money nawaz sharif or my next door nieghbour declared and paid in taxes, I should be able to look it up easily. Similarly, all the money given to the education ministry and had how it was spent should be put online.
We can use web 2.0 to become the fact checkers and the eye in the sky in Pakistan. Okay, maybe it won't save Pakistan but it would be a step in the right direction.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
US headed the way of Ireland?
Great article by Krugman as always. I feel this threat of a US debt crisis may well be the next shoe to drop if Obama does not see that Gietner's plans are not going to work but rather making things worse.
Banks well capitalized?
Gietner says the banks are well capitalized. The IMF says losses from the credit crisis in the financial sector will reach 4 trillion.
The treasury, like most other actors in this crisis, are acting out of fear. Fear, if these fallen banks are not propped up, all hell will break loose.
Hell has already broken loose. Sweeping things under the rug will only prolong the anguish. The banks are not capitalized well. Why else would the likes of GS play with it earnings. Like taking December out of its annual report in reporting its latest earnings.
Stop proping up failed institutions mr secretary. Stop acting out of fear.
The treasury, like most other actors in this crisis, are acting out of fear. Fear, if these fallen banks are not propped up, all hell will break loose.
Hell has already broken loose. Sweeping things under the rug will only prolong the anguish. The banks are not capitalized well. Why else would the likes of GS play with it earnings. Like taking December out of its annual report in reporting its latest earnings.
Stop proping up failed institutions mr secretary. Stop acting out of fear.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Crochet and hyperbolic space
Ted talk: beyond euclidian, spherical geometry is the geometry of correls, modeled by a cornell scientist, daina taimina, via crochet.
In hyperbolic space, an infinite set of lines are paralell to a given line.
In hyperbolic space, an infinite set of lines are paralell to a given line.
History is a (double) helix.
Reading an economics article I came across the following: history is not a sine wave, endlessly repeating the same pattern. Rather it is a helix, in that we encounter issues that lie in the same plane but are different.
Sunday, March 8, 2009
Apologizing for Beloved Theories
Communism didn't fail- it was the communist that failed.
Religion is great- its just misunderstood, misapplied and misused.
Lessay fair economics didn't fail- it was the greedy bankers that failed us.
You either agree or disagree with all of the statements above.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Sunday, March 1, 2009
A New Type of Economics
Joe the plumber is so incompetent that you wouldn't let him touch a leaking faucet- he invariably makes things worse. Would you then consider his help if the water main broke and water was filling your basement?
"I share with Economists the belief that government intervention creates more problems than it solves." That line from David Swenson's book Unconventional Success, reminds me of Joe the plumber, who's help we would rather not take when things are fine. Why then are we all, Economists included, suddenly looking to Joe to help us in the current crisis?
To make matter worse, Economic principals as well as those from Evolutionary Biology and Ecology suggest that when a market participant does something stupid, they should suffer the consequences. Capitalism is survival of the fittest. In ecology, the old must die to make way for the new-- think of wildfires that are essential for the health of the forest. Death is an essential part of life.
The hard part is that when the economy is collapsing, the metaphor that that must be used is that of a house burning and not of a wild fire. When people are losing jobs, its a matter much closer to home than something thats happening far off in a forest. So what does one do when ones house is burning and -- to stick with the metaphor-- the parts that are burning are the worst parts that will one day be replaced by much better parts.
One cant just stand and watch! Joe the plumber, who in this case is the US government, led by Obama, must act. They must give us hope that the house will be saved even though we know that eventually, the fire will burn out, and things will return to normal, in spite of what the Government may or may not do.
But as we know, Joe is only making things worse by his efforts to stamp out the fire. His shoe is on fire and he only manages to spread the fire to other parts of the house. (As most economists agree, or at least used to agree, that there is a place for government intervention, but it is limited to fixing market inefficiencies and not to bailing any one out.)
Therefore, I propose a new field of study-- call it Pseudo-economics. A field that teaches Joe (the Governments) how to look like he is on top of the fire fighting situation but in reality not touch the fire at all. Just let it run its course. This would do good by raising the confidence of the public but take away the harm that the government ends up doing in trying to help the economy in crisis.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Could Religion be the Ultimate Nihilist's Response?
The moral world is a spectrum. On one end: absolute faith, a world full of meaning, if not moral certainty then at least the belief in a moral compass. A world of structure and direction. It may be a bit contradictory (Libral Muslims favourites: boozing yes, pork no, adultary yes, jizyah no, interest no, fajr no, the list goes on-- its all interpretation silly!). But you've got God looking over your shoulder. Logical inconsistency or arbitrarness is a small price to pay.
On the other end of the moral spectrum: Nihilism. The belief that there is no inherent meaning but the one that we create. Amoral. Directionless, but also, by definition, contradiction free. Also free of Judgement (of others and oneself). The opposite of complete Faith: complete Doubt.
But, to give you my favorite quote: in doubt, there is freedom.
In reality, this spectrum may just be a mobius strip. (I keep telling this to my mother- a woman of great faith- she, greatly influenced by the Sufi Mystic tradition sees "the connections" and the Unity, still cant help but take swipe's at Darwin and Atheists every now and then. Why swipe if you we all pray to the same God in our own different way?).
If you have ever traveled by foot ALONE in the mountains or the deserts for even a day, you will know what I am talking about. There is sense of being tiny and insignificant- of dare I say it, being meaningless. A solo trek in the mountains or desert, my friends, is the first steps down the road to nihilism- as much as it may be a turn towards religion.
Imagine a boy in the desert, herding sheep, close to nature in all its grandeur. In the old story, the boy is (or becomes) religious, and goes on to create the great religion of Islam. In this story, the boy is a little different. Being a humble shepherd, someone who tends to the simple practicalities of life, the boy in this story is, well, practical. He has also lost both his parents. His way of dealing with meaninglessness is simply to accept it as reality. This adventurous soul, didn't latch on to the ready made meaninglessness destroying "memes" of his forefathers. In the desert he searches for his own meaning.
When Nietzsche talks about Nihilism, he compares it to drowning in a sea; It is as if the earth become one vast ocean, a giant drop of water, and you are sinking in it. There is no up or down (a myth that is to this day pervasive, even after we know the vastness of the cosmos is directionless), no right and no wrong. It is an Abyss. It takes time to come to terms with such a world view. In this story, it takes the boy till 42 to come to terms with it. And in coming to terms with it, the boy finds in it the Freedom of what Nietzsche called the Superman.
In many ways, believing in something, actually makes it true. The credit crisis is in ways nothing more than a self fulfilling prophesy- a lack of confidence in the economic future. At the individual level, another example is confidence itself- as I like to say before my friends at Cornell before they go in for interviews: the only way to have confidence is to believe you have it. The placebo effect is another well documented example of mind over matter. These are trivial concepts. The wise shepherd thought about and understood them quickly. Indeed, he is tempted to create his own reality (and did he not indeed succeed) to escape the meaninglessness.
But before he can do this- he must die. So strong are the chains of the value system your parents, friends and family wrap around you, that they only come off after death.
Why did god take away my parents? he asks. Our shephard is drowning in the Abyss. The only way it made sense to this simple shephard was to say that it made no sense at all. When the boy has lost his mind as well as the old value system, Gabriel finally comes to him. The boy (who is now a middle aged man of 42) is reborn in a moment of clarity, a moment of complete freedom.
Freedom: to question the traditions and beliefs of your forefathers. This is what the shephard understood. He questioned the traditions of the tribes of his time, from their belief in multiple gods to the treatment of women, children and orphans. He preached goodness. Why? Because he finally understood why his parents died: for no reason, other than, they were human. Fragile creatues. Of flesh and blood.
Like Kant was trying to say (but not in so many words), goodness that springs from the Abyss of Nihilism, is true goodness. It has no other motive behind it besides the will to do good, an end itself. It is not coerced goodness, which is what we practice today, afraid of the police or heaven and hell.
Muhammad became Superman, and, as the story goes, Nihilsm gave birth to its alter ego, Religion.
Next time: why our shepherd Superman did not give the order for the Quran to be compiled.
On the other end of the moral spectrum: Nihilism. The belief that there is no inherent meaning but the one that we create. Amoral. Directionless, but also, by definition, contradiction free. Also free of Judgement (of others and oneself). The opposite of complete Faith: complete Doubt.
But, to give you my favorite quote: in doubt, there is freedom.
In reality, this spectrum may just be a mobius strip. (I keep telling this to my mother- a woman of great faith- she, greatly influenced by the Sufi Mystic tradition sees "the connections" and the Unity, still cant help but take swipe's at Darwin and Atheists every now and then. Why swipe if you we all pray to the same God in our own different way?).
If you have ever traveled by foot ALONE in the mountains or the deserts for even a day, you will know what I am talking about. There is sense of being tiny and insignificant- of dare I say it, being meaningless. A solo trek in the mountains or desert, my friends, is the first steps down the road to nihilism- as much as it may be a turn towards religion.
Imagine a boy in the desert, herding sheep, close to nature in all its grandeur. In the old story, the boy is (or becomes) religious, and goes on to create the great religion of Islam. In this story, the boy is a little different. Being a humble shepherd, someone who tends to the simple practicalities of life, the boy in this story is, well, practical. He has also lost both his parents. His way of dealing with meaninglessness is simply to accept it as reality. This adventurous soul, didn't latch on to the ready made meaninglessness destroying "memes" of his forefathers. In the desert he searches for his own meaning.
When Nietzsche talks about Nihilism, he compares it to drowning in a sea; It is as if the earth become one vast ocean, a giant drop of water, and you are sinking in it. There is no up or down (a myth that is to this day pervasive, even after we know the vastness of the cosmos is directionless), no right and no wrong. It is an Abyss. It takes time to come to terms with such a world view. In this story, it takes the boy till 42 to come to terms with it. And in coming to terms with it, the boy finds in it the Freedom of what Nietzsche called the Superman.
In many ways, believing in something, actually makes it true. The credit crisis is in ways nothing more than a self fulfilling prophesy- a lack of confidence in the economic future. At the individual level, another example is confidence itself- as I like to say before my friends at Cornell before they go in for interviews: the only way to have confidence is to believe you have it. The placebo effect is another well documented example of mind over matter. These are trivial concepts. The wise shepherd thought about and understood them quickly. Indeed, he is tempted to create his own reality (and did he not indeed succeed) to escape the meaninglessness.
But before he can do this- he must die. So strong are the chains of the value system your parents, friends and family wrap around you, that they only come off after death.
Why did god take away my parents? he asks. Our shephard is drowning in the Abyss. The only way it made sense to this simple shephard was to say that it made no sense at all. When the boy has lost his mind as well as the old value system, Gabriel finally comes to him. The boy (who is now a middle aged man of 42) is reborn in a moment of clarity, a moment of complete freedom.
Freedom: to question the traditions and beliefs of your forefathers. This is what the shephard understood. He questioned the traditions of the tribes of his time, from their belief in multiple gods to the treatment of women, children and orphans. He preached goodness. Why? Because he finally understood why his parents died: for no reason, other than, they were human. Fragile creatues. Of flesh and blood.
Like Kant was trying to say (but not in so many words), goodness that springs from the Abyss of Nihilism, is true goodness. It has no other motive behind it besides the will to do good, an end itself. It is not coerced goodness, which is what we practice today, afraid of the police or heaven and hell.
Muhammad became Superman, and, as the story goes, Nihilsm gave birth to its alter ego, Religion.
Next time: why our shepherd Superman did not give the order for the Quran to be compiled.
Friday, January 23, 2009
Apple
A stock I pitched to the Cornell Investment Management club came out with better than expected results. Apple seems to be defying the recession-- as I had predicted-- although not so much through the iphone sales but through the ipod sales. But my thesis was still correct. The new ipods, with their ability to surf the internet and download apps are like cheap netbooks.
Apple remains on my conviction buy list, despite Steves ill health. I feel that great design is-- after 10 years of Steve being at the helm-- imbedded into Apple' genes.
Apple remains on my conviction buy list, despite Steves ill health. I feel that great design is-- after 10 years of Steve being at the helm-- imbedded into Apple' genes.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Steve Jobs Takes Leave of Absence
Today Steve announced, "....during the past week I have learned that my health-related issues are more complex than I originally thought... In order to take myself out of the limelight and focus on my health, and to allow everyone at Apple to focus on delivering extraordinary products, I have decided to take a medical leave of absence until the end of June."
The Stock fell 8% in after hours.
Steve led Apple over the last decade or so to great heights. But should we expect that Apple will not be able to keep producing great products without him? I don't think so. Indeed, it was not Steve who came up with the click wheel. Or the design for the iBook's, iMac's. etc.
Apple has a great industrial design team for that. Jonathan Ives who designed the most of the hit products for Apple is a cult figure himself (more popular in the UK that JK Rowlings. See article:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/entertainment/3481599.stm ).
What Steve did well was able to identify good design and not let it be ruined by what is known as "design by committee" (DbyC). DbyC or its sister, design by programmers (what Microsoft does) takes even good designs and dilutes them till they are indistinguishable from bad ones.
If you look at the stunning growth in Apple you realize that Steve has educated all of us about good design. He has taught all those who love their ipods and the iphones, that design matters. That technology doesn't have to be dull, but can have a style and sensibility, that makes these objects of affection; "cool" rather than just tools that make our lives more efficient (which they do as well).
If he could have taught all this to us, the general public, it seems likely that those that have been closest to him, those that have actually made the designs that he then pushed forward (or modified) know this too.
I believe that Steve has, over the last decade, put in place a brand which such a strong sense of style that the products that will be coming out of apple are almost obvious. So, for example, a larger iphone type tablet device, in the range of 8 to 9 inches diagonally, is on its way sometime this year. How can I be sure? Place all the apple devices that apple has current from the smallest (the ipod nano) to the largest (the plasma display) and you will notice a gap in the size in this range. More on this anther time...
My point is this. As long as Apple does not fall for DbyC, they should be fine, with or with out Steve. And I don't think they will fall for DbyC, because if I'm telling you about it, its such an obvious trap that the smart people at Apple will know about it too!
The Stock fell 8% in after hours.
Steve led Apple over the last decade or so to great heights. But should we expect that Apple will not be able to keep producing great products without him? I don't think so. Indeed, it was not Steve who came up with the click wheel. Or the design for the iBook's, iMac's. etc.
Apple has a great industrial design team for that. Jonathan Ives who designed the most of the hit products for Apple is a cult figure himself (more popular in the UK that JK Rowlings. See article:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/entertainment/3481599.stm ).
What Steve did well was able to identify good design and not let it be ruined by what is known as "design by committee" (DbyC). DbyC or its sister, design by programmers (what Microsoft does) takes even good designs and dilutes them till they are indistinguishable from bad ones.
If you look at the stunning growth in Apple you realize that Steve has educated all of us about good design. He has taught all those who love their ipods and the iphones, that design matters. That technology doesn't have to be dull, but can have a style and sensibility, that makes these objects of affection; "cool" rather than just tools that make our lives more efficient (which they do as well).
If he could have taught all this to us, the general public, it seems likely that those that have been closest to him, those that have actually made the designs that he then pushed forward (or modified) know this too.
I believe that Steve has, over the last decade, put in place a brand which such a strong sense of style that the products that will be coming out of apple are almost obvious. So, for example, a larger iphone type tablet device, in the range of 8 to 9 inches diagonally, is on its way sometime this year. How can I be sure? Place all the apple devices that apple has current from the smallest (the ipod nano) to the largest (the plasma display) and you will notice a gap in the size in this range. More on this anther time...
My point is this. As long as Apple does not fall for DbyC, they should be fine, with or with out Steve. And I don't think they will fall for DbyC, because if I'm telling you about it, its such an obvious trap that the smart people at Apple will know about it too!
Friday, January 9, 2009
On the Demise of the US
Its seems to be trendy to say the US is on a steady decline and a superpower for only a while longer. China is sure to be kicking US ass shortly (economically at least), they say.
Reason's given are based on the unsustainable US government deficit (40% of GDP), the current account deficit, social security crisis, rising military spending, etc.
These proclamations are not new. I asked Peter Bakstansky – Senior Vice President (retired), Fed Reserve of NY the question (week on wall street): does the fed worry about the current account deficit. He said yes, its discussed but its never been a real cause of concern. On the current account deficit he said, "they said it (the current account deficit) would be unsustainable at 5% (of GDP) that came and went, then they said 7% and that too came and went".
The current economic crisis has given second wind to these theories. Seventy years ago, during the great depression, I bet these theorists might also have found lots to clamor about. To such people, the end of the US should seem eminent at every recession.
My position is simple. We simply do not have sufficient data at this point to say either way.
To take an analogy from picking stocks-- analysts and those trained in the art know how hard is it to call a stock. Where will GE trade a year from now? Most would shy away from making a call on GE given its complexity and diverse business. Yet, when it comes to the $40 trillion firm called the USofA everyone seems to know and is ready to call which way the stock is going.
Reason's given are based on the unsustainable US government deficit (40% of GDP), the current account deficit, social security crisis, rising military spending, etc.
These proclamations are not new. I asked Peter Bakstansky – Senior Vice President (retired), Fed Reserve of NY the question (week on wall street): does the fed worry about the current account deficit. He said yes, its discussed but its never been a real cause of concern. On the current account deficit he said, "they said it (the current account deficit) would be unsustainable at 5% (of GDP) that came and went, then they said 7% and that too came and went".
The current economic crisis has given second wind to these theories. Seventy years ago, during the great depression, I bet these theorists might also have found lots to clamor about. To such people, the end of the US should seem eminent at every recession.
My position is simple. We simply do not have sufficient data at this point to say either way.
To take an analogy from picking stocks-- analysts and those trained in the art know how hard is it to call a stock. Where will GE trade a year from now? Most would shy away from making a call on GE given its complexity and diverse business. Yet, when it comes to the $40 trillion firm called the USofA everyone seems to know and is ready to call which way the stock is going.
On Technology Trends
Three trends in personal technology are note worthy:
1) The User Interface (UI) is the computer
2) Different UI's fill different needs
3) Data doesnt differentiate between UI's
1) The UI is the computer:
Once upon a time, computers filled entire rooms. Then they came in big beige boxes. Finally, the iMac shrunk all the innards and hid them behind the LCD screen and thus began the age of the UI. The iPhone is one big UI.
2) Different UI's fill different needs
In olden times, a warrior carried a knife, a shield, a sword and other fighting equipment. Today, in the information age, the UI is the equipment we take to battle. I might take just my mobile device on my jog to listen to podcasts/news. To a meeting, I'll take my laptop to make presentations. At home I'll use a desktop (or desktop replacement laptop) to complete multiple tasks efficiently.
3) Data doesnt differentiate between UI's
Data is UI agnostic. Today, I cant have a video conference on my cell phone as easily as I can on my laptop, or create or edit documents as easily. Just like my laptop will not be as portable as my mobile device (by definition) there are some inherant reasons why differnet UI's will always have some advantages, but they will converge.
1) The User Interface (UI) is the computer
2) Different UI's fill different needs
3) Data doesnt differentiate between UI's
1) The UI is the computer:
Once upon a time, computers filled entire rooms. Then they came in big beige boxes. Finally, the iMac shrunk all the innards and hid them behind the LCD screen and thus began the age of the UI. The iPhone is one big UI.
2) Different UI's fill different needs
In olden times, a warrior carried a knife, a shield, a sword and other fighting equipment. Today, in the information age, the UI is the equipment we take to battle. I might take just my mobile device on my jog to listen to podcasts/news. To a meeting, I'll take my laptop to make presentations. At home I'll use a desktop (or desktop replacement laptop) to complete multiple tasks efficiently.
3) Data doesnt differentiate between UI's
Data is UI agnostic. Today, I cant have a video conference on my cell phone as easily as I can on my laptop, or create or edit documents as easily. Just like my laptop will not be as portable as my mobile device (by definition) there are some inherant reasons why differnet UI's will always have some advantages, but they will converge.
On the trends
The Cornell MBA "week on wall street" came to an end yesterday. I couldnt help but think it should be called the "weak" on wall street.
Among the highlights were meetings with analysts from The Capital Group, Jim Cramer, S & P and Mavrick Capital.
Gunnar Overstrom – MD, PM at Mavrick mentioned that he looks at three things while picking stocks. The secular trend, the cyclical trend and particular bottom up trends (the last being things like management, accounting standards. fraud, etc.)
Deeper evaluation is done on the basis of fundamentals, (market) expectations, valuations (which he considered the least important) and management.
I like this way of breaking things down.
Among the highlights were meetings with analysts from The Capital Group, Jim Cramer, S & P and Mavrick Capital.
Gunnar Overstrom – MD, PM at Mavrick mentioned that he looks at three things while picking stocks. The secular trend, the cyclical trend and particular bottom up trends (the last being things like management, accounting standards. fraud, etc.)
Deeper evaluation is done on the basis of fundamentals, (market) expectations, valuations (which he considered the least important) and management.
I like this way of breaking things down.
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